By: Ashley Holst
American University - SIS
International Development Master's Candidate
Maternal health was one of the Millennium Development Goals planned to be completed in 2015. The two indicators are maternal mortality ratio and the proportion of births attended by a skilled health personnel. The maternal mortality ratio target was to “reduce by three quarters… the maternal mortality ratio.” In thinking about maternal mortality rate, it occurred to me that a woman is often not given the space or the skills necessary to make a medical decision about her labor plan. Many steps go into the process of receiving new information about best practices for pregnancy and labor, let alone reading and understanding pamphlets or medicine bottles. These thoughts led me to the question: does the ability of a woman to read (and understand suggestions for pregnancy care and labor practices) lead to a lower maternal mortality rate?
The
presence of a skilled doctor or midwife is certainly helpful in case of
difficult deliveries and can lower the number of very preventable deaths of
infection and blood loss, but literacy would come many years prior to a girl
even imagines herself a mother, long before delivery that have an effect on
maternal well-being. There are several additional variables that have an effect
on a woman’s access to health care including availability of services, funds to
pay for health care, and basic understanding of the importance of pre-natal
care.
Maternal health was one of the Millennium Development Goals planned to be completed in 2015. The two indicators are maternal mortality ratio and the proportion of births attended by a skilled health personnel. The maternal mortality ratio target was to “reduce by three quarters… the maternal mortality ratio.” In thinking about maternal mortality rate, it occurred to me that a woman is often not given the space or the skills necessary to make a medical decision about her labor plan. Many steps go into the process of receiving new information about best practices for pregnancy and labor, let alone reading and understanding pamphlets or medicine bottles. These thoughts led me to the question: does the ability of a woman to read (and understand suggestions for pregnancy care and labor practices) lead to a lower maternal mortality rate?
http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/maternal.shtml
In addition to ability to understand the information for her own well-being, literacy may be a way to understand the amount of value that is placed on a woman. If she is “worth” educating, she may also be “worth” spending money on in case of a labor emergency. In which case, literacy may also be a predictor as to whether a husband or family may decide to spend money on prenatal or labor care. There could be some concern that high MMR may lead to people being less likely to invest in the education of women. It is not logical that a family would make this type of decision based on the probability that she may die 20 years later in child birth. I think it is much more likely that MMR will be lower in a country where women are valued prior to childbirth and where she is educated enough to understand prenatal care and make an educated decision about her labor.
For this analysis I chose to focus on the most recent year with data available during the MDG period (1990-2015). In thinking about the future of the MDGs, we must look at what is happening now, and what improvements have been seen, to identify a possible direction for future policy and development programming. In this case, 2010 was the year with most complete data available for maternal mortality rate (MMR) and female literacy rate. I compiled my data from the World Bank Indicators. MMR is measured as deaths per 100,000 births. MMR ranges from 2 – 1200 deaths (per 100,000 births) and the mean MMR was 182.5 in 2010. On first inspection of the variables, it appeared that MMR may be skewed, but when I compared the relationship with literacy. The correlation of literacy with both the logged and not logged variable were statistically significant. This showed me that logging MMR would not make my analysis more precise and using the unlogged variable would give me a more realistic result.
Table 1. Summary Statistics
Mean
|
Std. Dev.
|
Min.
|
Max.
|
Description
|
|
Maternal Mortality Rate 2010
|
176.96
|
213.39
|
2.0
|
960.0
|
Maternal deaths per
100,000 births
|
Female Literacy 09-11
|
80.17
|
23.00
|
12.2
|
99.9
|
% of the total
female population over 15
who are literate
|
GDP per Capita (US$)
|
7955.93
|
11404.23
|
359.6
|
71510.2
|
GDP per Capita in US$
|
Female Life Expectancy at
Birth
|
71.44
|
10.25
|
45.0
|
84.7
|
Average life
expectancy of a female calculated at birth
|
Observations
|
72
|
Table 2. Effects of Female
Literacy Rate on Maternal Mortality Rate
DV: Maternal Mortality Rate
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
Female Literacy
|
-7.585***
|
-3.403***
|
|
(-11.228)
|
(-4.828)
|
||
GDP per Capita (log)
|
-64.177***
|
-40.138**
|
|
(-6.879)
|
(-3.241)
|
||
Female Life Expectancy at Birth
|
-11.452***
|
-9.429***
|
|
(-8.473)
|
(-7.294)
|
||
Constant
|
789.583***
|
1543.677***
|
1455.506***
|
(13.963)
|
(20.225)
|
(17.871)
|
|
Adj. R-Squared
|
0.63
|
0.66
|
0.83
|
Observations
|
76
|
176
|
75
|
NOTE: OLS
estimates with t statistics in parentheses * p < 0.05, ** p <
0.01, *** p < 0.001
Source:
World Bank Development Indicators 2010
|
When the relationships of these variables were analyzed with MMR the results were very interesting. I find that Female Literacy was in fact significantly correlated with MMR in both the bivariate (uncontrolled) and controlled models. GDP per capita and Life Expectancy are also both significantly correlated with MMR. When controlling for the other variables in the model, a 1% point increase in female literacy results in a decrease of 3.4 maternal deaths per 100,000 births. This is an important finding showing that by increasing literacy in a country by a mere 5% could save the lives of almost 20 mothers. GDP per capita and life expectancy also showed positive implications. On average, controlling for GDP and literacy constant a 1 year increase in life expectancy is associated with a decrease of 9.4 deaths per 100,000 births. Controlling for the other variables, a 10% increase in GDP per capita is associated with a decrease of 4 deaths per 100,000 births. Both relationships are statistically significant (p<.05).
According to my findings working to increase the quality of life of women with improve MMR, the 5th Millennium Development Goal. My results show that a combination of health, economic, and educational development will improve the chance that a women will have a successful pregnancy and labor. As each variable is measured in a different way, it is impossible to say which element of development is most effective, but the results show that any improvement in these three categories will result in lives saved.
Organizations or programs hoping to reduce MMR by offering prenatal supplies, pregnancy or labor educational workshops, or educating women about how to identify signs of a dangerous labor need to consider literacy in their project design. If a women is unable to read and comprehend the information, it will be useless information when the educators are no longer around. Helping to improve literacy rates may also allow a woman to be more aware of and confident in family planning methods which could reduce young, old, and multiple pregnancies (both of which have higher risk of maternal mortality).
Notes:
[1] GDP
per capita was positively skewed so the analysis reflects logged values.
Works
Cited:
Big Picture Stuff:
ReplyDeleteYour research question and DV/IV variables are very clearly stated. You also discuss why it is important to answer this question. Some of your policy implications are at the end in your conclusion but since literacy rate is not significant, I wonder if it makes more sense to include some of your discussion of why improving literacy rate is important for MMR more at the beginning when you discuss why it’s important to study the effect of literacy rate on MMR. (I see why it’s in the conclusion so I’m torn about if you should leave the information there.)
From your conclusion, I understood that GDP per capita is important for MMR and why that may be.
Nuts and Bolts:
I think your Figure B is a bivariate graph with parametric and non parametric fit. However, you do not say what the solid line and if this is a prediction line, it doesn’t seem to match the lowess line very well.
A descriptive statistics table may also be helpful. You include your variable information in paragraph form but if I have questions (or forget some of the details) later, it would be easier to find if the information is in a table.
For Table 1, instead of being in a footnote, I would move it up so that I can look the table at the same time that I am reading your analysis.
Modelling and Inference:
In your footnotes, you addressed the need to log some of the variables, and you control for several important confounds. You address that this is not evidence of a causal relationship, rule out reverse causality.
Your blog is free of jargon and I feel that most people would understand what you are saying. However, you have a few grammar issues in the beginning that you should look at (some of the sentences look like you started to say one thing, or changed what you had written, without completely deleting the old text).
Thank you! I agree and will be moving the table up in to the blog itself on the final draft. I will certainly be doing a double read through for grammar and understanding! Thanks!
DeleteI really like your choice of topic and I think you make a good case for the significance of studying it. A few thoughts though: first, I think it would strengthen your post to mention existing research on this topic and show how yours is different. What information can your readers get from you that they can’t get from anyone else?
ReplyDeleteSecond, I know this is a rough draft, but you have a few small editing issues (paragraph 3 says that MMR is measured as a proportion of 100,000 deaths rather than births--the graph label is correct however).
Third, be careful about the time period that your data is from. Your IV and DV are measured over two different time periods (MMR in 2010 and literacy rate from 2009-2011). When you measure these variables over different time periods, you aren’t comparing MMR and literacy rates for the same group of respondents. I might be wrong, but I think this raises some serious concerns about the validity of your results (and may be part of the reason that your IV-DV relationship was statistically insignificant). If you need to compile literacy rates over a two year period, your analysis would be much stronger if you also compile MMR rates and your control variables over the same period.
Fourth, I understand what you’re trying to do when you use female life expectancy as one of your control variables, but you need to be very careful about the importance you place on their statistically significant relationship. Because MMR is a part of what female life expectancy is measuring, you’re effectively doubling MMR’s weight in your model. I understand the problem of trying to find alternative variables, but is there another way that you can measure female health apart from MMR?
Fifth, just so the reader has an idea of the dataset you’re dealing with, number of observations, etc. you might want to add a summary table.
Sharon, thank you for your input! Certainly user error on the "deaths" instead of "births". I decided to find the average of 2009, 2010, and 2011 because there simply were not enough countries represented in any one of these years. Because literacy rates are slow changing and measured as a percent of total population I felt this was a reasonable method. I am unsure as what you mean by different people. The world bank collect data from various statistical institutions and databases, so when comparing different indicators, we are not necessarily looking at the same group of respondents, instead looking at a country as a whole. I will include more of my justification... MMR was reported every 5 years. Thank you for your input, I will keep them in mind as I move forward!
DeleteThe blog post is clear and easy to read, and the topic is really interesting! Also, the graphs are well-formatted and the policy suggestion part is good. A few suggestions:
ReplyDelete1. Could you explain how the literacy rate was measured? From what I understand, some surveys measure the literacy rate of people at or after a certain age. It will be better if you can include that information because I think age is somewhat important here. In many countries with high MMR, women tend to give birth at a very young age. Knowledge of pregnancy and labor may not have that much effect on MMR in those countries.
2. I like the topic of the blog post but I would make some changes to it since the research result shows that the effect of literacy on MMR, though exists, is not statistically significant.